Monday, April 21, 2014

How to Succeed in Business, Given That Nobody Knows Anything: The Black Swan

Just finished my first book! The Black Swan went fast, since I had it on audio and Kindle. I kept debating whether it was in the right place in the DD system, since it was trying to be a book on epistemology (do we know anything, and if so, how?) but kept ending up being a book on investment strategies. My biggest takeaway was an investment strategy (broadly defined): We don't know much. Weird things can happen. They can be bad or good. If you can make a small risk that puts you in a position to profit from a good weird thing happening, do so, but don't stake much on the risk that a bad weird thing WON'T happen, because there is no meaningful way to assess the possibilities. Tomorrow I go back to the library; I am excited to see what's in 010-019.

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